Virtual Only | Track 4 | Session 1. New economic outlook

The COVID-19 pandemic precipitated the issue of reverse migration of urban poor in India. These migrants mostly dwell in rental accommodations in slums, informal settlements, peri-urban areas due to unaffordable housing in the cities. During the pandemic they faced eviction from their rented accommodations by landlords due to absence of a formal rent agreement. It was then that the Government of India realized the need for decent rental housing for them and the socially marginal groups. Housing is one of the necessities of life. However, given the affordability of masses, housing is rather a process, than the final destination, starting with a rental home. Classically, the family-based/ownership-based housing had been the mainstream housing provision in India. Till 1990s, the general situation of rental housing and the terms of rental contracts have followed the archaic rental acts in India. As a result, rental housing became a second choice thereby affecting the housing availability for common people despite vacant inventories in the private as well as government pool. If the state creates an enabling environment in the rental housing sector, these vacant and locked census houses have the potential to eradicate the houselessness in the country. With infrastructure status being accorded to affordable housing, promotion of rental housing can be an opportunity to boost the real estate sector for government as well as private players. This study thus gives a roadmap in context of the state of Madhya Pradesh for creating an ecosystem of variety of rental housing which are inclusive, equitable & accessible for all sections of the society. The study gives a guideline to create an enabling environment to not only provide adequate and inclusive rental housing in cities and regions but also address the challenges faced by stakeholders. It focusses on issues of all the stakeholders including owners, tenants and the middlemen/brokers who play an important role in rental housing service provisioning. The study methodology includes a detailed comparative analysis of existing laws, rules, policies, and procedures pertaining to rental housing in India and abroad. A detailed review of the Draft Model Tenancy Act by Government of India and the amendments and procedural changes to be carried in it in context of Madhya Pradesh was done. The theoretical underpinnings were reinforced by extensive deliberations with experts from Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited, India, state officials and lawyers dealing with rental grievances. The recommendations include an enabling organizational and administrative framework to achieve transparency and accountability in terms of contracts of rental housing making them accessible for all sections of the society. The study focuses on the target groups including houseless and below poverty line population, tenants due to life constraints such as slum dwellers, migrant workers, aged population, disaster affected population, destitute, socially and economical vulnerable people, default borrowers; tenants requiring short-duration stay/ need driven such as transgender, students, single working women or men, co-living or sharing, patients, tourists/ visitors, construction workers, hostelers etc. and people which are tenants by choice. The study discusses a conceptual framework of significant elements for future development and application to strengthen the policy provisions to create an enabling environment for the stakeholders. It suggests models such as rent-to-own and built-to-rent as mechanism to unlock private investments in the rental housing industry. The study also proposes a digital portal for rental housing in Madhya Pradesh will help in monitoring and managing the government, an effective and efficient rental housing ecosystem accessible to all. It will serve as a linking platform for government, rental housing seekers, housing providers and third-party service providers.

In 2013, the State Council officially issued the National Sustainable Development Plan for Resource-Based Cities (2013-2020), which proposed that there are 262 resource-based cities in my country. The development of these cities mostly depends on the constant consumption of resources. In recent years, due to depletion of resources, and reduction of energy, more and more resource-based cities are facing the problems of population decline, industrial failure, economic recession, and even a lot of idle space. How to move toward a more lasting and sustainable development path? It is a key problem that many resource-based cities will face. In the context of sustainable development, many resource-based cities have chosen the path of transformation and development led by a circular economy, thus getting rid of the predicament of resource development. However, after the transformation, whether the sustainable development capacity of resource-based cities has been improved or reduced, the current research has revealed little, and there is no definite answer. According to the theory of social, economic, and natural complex ecosystems, ecological carrying capacity can represent the sustainable development capacity in a region. Nanchuan, a southern city of Chongqing, is a typical resource-based city. It started its transformation around 2013-2014 and achieved good results. This study takes the Nanchuan District of Chongqing, as the research object, constructs the evaluation model of the ecological carrying capacity of the region with the data of recent 10 years, deconstructs the changes in sustainable development capacity since its transformation, and tries to analyze the factors affecting its changes from the aspects of population, industry and so on. Then, this paper summarizes the main approaches to the transformation of the Nanchuan District. The results of this paper show that: (1) The ecological carrying capacity of the Nanchuan District exhibits certain changes in both time and space. (2) There are also significant differences in ecological carrying capacity under different dimensions. (3) Changes in industrial structure have a significant impact on the sustainable development capacity of resource-based cities after transformation. This research helps to strengthen the understanding of the sustainable development of resource-based cities after transformation and helps to summarize and refine the transformation approaches of resource-based cities from a medium and micro perspective, leading the development of cities from wealth to health. At the same time, this study can also provide some suggestions for the sustainable development of other resource-based cities.

As a big agricultural country, China once had a rural population that accounted for 80% of the total population. During the more than 20 years of economic development and population transformation, China's population has undergone great changes in terms of population size and population structure, especially the changes in the number and structure of the rural population. Since the 1990s, the number and proportion of the rural population in China has shown a trend of significant reduction. Data from the seventh national census shows that in 2020, the population living in rural areas in China is 509.79 million, accounting for 36.11% of the total population, which has a decrease of 164.36 million and 14.21% compared with 2010. The essence of the rural revitalization strategy in China is to serve the rural population, so analyzing the changing characteristics of the rural population is of great significance to the implementation of strategic measures, which is also the focus of rural work in China. Based on the data of the sixth and seventh censuses, through the analysis of the characteristics of rural population changes at the national and regional levels, the paper reveals the differences in the distribution of rural population and puts forward some thoughts on rural revitalization policies. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Taking the “Hu Huanyong line” as the boundary, the rural population in China is densely distributed in the southeast area, and the characteristics of sparse distribution in the northwest area will exist for a long time. (2) Most areas are facing the situation of a "double decline" in the number and proportion of the rural population, it is necessary to conceive the rural revitalization strategy and related rural planning ahead based on the changing trend of population distribution. The investment and construction of rural revitalization should not be limited to the existing resident population, but should be scientifically designed and rationally utilized limited funds, resources and elements according to the substantial reduction trend. (3) There are obvious differences in the distribution and changes of the rural population in the four major regions, and the formulation of rural revitalization policies should be regionally targeted. For example, Northeast China is an important grain production base with excellent land conditions, facing the trend of large-scale reduction of both the total population and the rural population, it is possible to explore the integration of some villages and the development of large-scale mechanization of agriculture. (4) Nearly 70% of the rural population is distributed in 19 urban agglomerations, and nearly half of the rural population is distributed in large cities with an urban population of more than 1 million. It is important to promote urban agglomerations and large cities to become the main battlefield for urban-rural integration development. (5) There are different characteristics of rural population migration within the urban agglomeration, and there are also differences in the characteristics of rural population changes between large cities, which are worthy of further exploration.

The pace of urbanization has doubled with the turn of this century when talking in context of India. The migration of population from rural to urban areas for want of better employment, facilities and amenities has not only led to horizontal and vertical expansion of the urban areas but has led to very highly concentrated pockets of population having sub-standard living conditions. The ability and capacity of the urban area to support its migrant population and the reality of these very congested pockets and its dependence on the main city was exposed during the first year of pandemic, when majority of the migrants had to flee back to their native villages and towns due to loss of employment and poor infrastructure. Thus, exposing unsustainable and weak linkages between the urban and rural areas which needs addressing. The authors in this research have explored the options that have been proposed and executed by the Government of India at some levels. The authors have attempted to evaluate the possibilities of shrinking of urban areas, based on cluster based regional development. The problem researched upon is not unique to India, and perceptibly has lessons that can be applied globally with appropriate adaptations to suite local situations.

Urban shrinkage is influenced by economic globalisation and is a product of a certain stage of urban development. With the depletion of urban resources and the adjustment of the industrial structure, there will be a decrease in urban population, lower economic level and slow urban development within a certain period of time. The city of Baishan has become a unique new industrial city in the northeast by virtue of its mineral resources. With the development of minerals driving the development of related industries, the city is gradually experiencing significant shrinkage problems as resources continue to be depleted. This paper takes Baishan City as the study area, and constructs a comprehensive evaluation system for urban development in the context of urban shrinkage in four dimensions: population, economy, society and public space, and evaluates the economic efficiency, resource efficiency and environmental efficiency of Baishan City from 2011 to 2022 by means of data envelopment analysis. The results show that: (i) urban development in Baishan has entered a state of contraction since 2011; (ii) there is a positive correlation between urban development and economic efficiency; (iii) the traditional urban planning paradigm based on growth scenario simulation is no longer suitable for development needs, and it is necessary to formulate a corresponding policy of international smart contraction, cultivate new urban industries, upgrade and transform the industrial structure, and vigorously develop the tertiary industry to revive the city.

As Covid-19 enters the normalization phase, cities and towns must refocus on economic development based on disease prevention and control. The former approach of haphazard urban expansion was unsustainable, and cities are now increasingly being managed with a focus on practical and realistic development plans. In this sense, financial management is the bedrock of healthy urban development. Long-term government financial development necessitates a thorough examination of the size and structure of revenue and spending, as well as the dynamic balance between the two. As a crucial programmatic plan for guiding urban development, strategic planning has paid little attention to the impact that government financial management might have on the attainment of planning objectives and the implementation of planning strategies and significant projects. While traditional plans frequently provide clear direction on the timeframe of urban growth, the government's ability to provide appropriate financial support for urban development at any given time warrants further investigation. Therefore, we'll concentrate on a few questions: 1) How can the county's financial status be assessed, and what concerns may be identified? Which variables are inextricably linked to strategic planning's content? 2) What fundamental changes in the county's budget are visible throughout the epidemic's normalization period? What can be done about them? 3) In the case of urban infrastructure, how can the efficiency of infrastructure development and service quality be enhanced while general government spending is reduced? 4) What public-private cooperation approaches should be implemented in certain circumstances to boost tax income and mitigate the dangers associated with the normalization? This paper proposed the contents of the county-level financial evaluation of "one overall, two priorities" to fit in with the spatial level and contents of the formulation of the strategic plan for urban development. The "one overall" refers to the overall financial evaluation at the regional and county levels, which can show existing difficulties and give some direction for strategic development positioning at the overall level as well as support a thorough analysis inside the county. Meanwhile, urban infrastructure development and major industries both play a protective and dynamic role in city growth and are significant parts of strategic planning, so they are the two primary components of the full assessment (i.e. the "two priorities"). The evaluation is made up of three steps. 1) The study employs quantitative economic indicators and balance-of-payments models, such as the optimum accumulation control model, to conduct a complete review and identify the general difficulties of county-level finances in terms of revenue and spending, especially urban infrastructure development, industrial development and epidemic-related public health. 2) From the perspective of revenue and expenditure, we analyzed problems in the allocation and flow of participating entities, such as government and social organizations, and related funds in urban infrastructure development. Then we proposed various mechanisms for financial allocation management and performance evaluation, as well as organizational models in specific contexts. 3) We conducted a quantitative analysis of key industries and projects and explored the role of different investment and financing models on the development of industries (or industrial chains), the implementation of specific projects, and the expansion of government tax sources and expenditure control, based on the project's thematic research on industrial development. Finally, the empirical study of Junlian County in Sichuan Province preliminarily verifies the application of the financial assessment model for strategic town development planning developed in this research, with the goal of giving good experiences for more sustainable growth of county-level towns in China throughout the epidemic's normalization.

While the COVID-19 continues to threaten global economy, cities worldwide are seeking to reopen business and cope with the profound economic impacts. There is an urgent need for a new paradigm of city governance and long-term recovery plan, requiring assessing the effects of reopening measures. Due to COVID-19 lockdown, the short-term rental industry is severely affected by tourism restrictions. For the United Kingdom, according to the Office for National Statistics, international trips dropped by 97% in 2021, leading to the most severe decline in travel and tourism sector in London. Upon implementing serial reopening measures, according to the UK Short Term Accommodation Association, the occupancy rate in London increased to 76%, indicating that London has recovered closer to pre-pandemic level. However, the spatial-temporal mechanism of how reopening measures affect the short-term rental economically remains unknown. This study started with an overview of the reopening roadmap. The reopening measures were divided into four steps: (1) outdoor gatherings allowed for limited pax, and “stay at home” order ends; (2) public buildings reopen, outdoor venues, and self-catered holiday accommodations open; (3) indoor venues reopen, and indoor social gatherings allowed for limited pax; (4) Most legal limits on social contact removed, and final closed sector reopens. Secondly, based on the short-term rental dataset from Inside Airbnb platform, we adopted the OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression model to statistically assess how reopening measures influence short-term rental market in London. Specifically, we constructed regression models respectively for lockdown, 4 reopening steps, and coexisting phase from Feb. 2021 to Feb. 2022. Meanwhile, different regression models have been developed for 32 boroughs in London to further identify the spatial effects of reopening measures. Furthermore, these listed regression models revealed correlations between reopening measures and different property characteristics, including type, price, amenity, star rating, etc. By analyzing the data above, the findings mainly implicate 4 aspects. In general, since reopening step 2, the successive reopening measures have effectively stimulated the short-term rental market regarding the revenue, price, and occupancy rate, which tend to grow slowly and level off in coexisting phase. In terms of specific measures of different phases, as ‘Stay at home’ order ends and self-catered holiday accommodation reopens, easement of national trips restriction has boosted short-term rental in London greatly. Moreover, reopening public buildings and outdoor venues in reopening step 2 have the most significant effect on short-term rental, compared with lifting restrictions on social gatherings and indoor venues in reopening step 1, 3, and 4. In terms of geographical breakdown, overall, city center and boroughs with more tourism attractions show a higher level of sensitivity to reopening measures, compared with periphery suburban areas where property type or other characteristics are the determinants of short-term rental revenue. In such cases, the effects of reopening measures on different areas vary in the spatial-temporal sense. Specifically, short-term rental properties in city center benefit more from reopening of indoor venues like restaurants and nightclubs in reopening step 3 and 4, while periphery properties get better as self-catered accommodation reopens in step 2. This study provides a spatial-temporal perspective to assess the economic effects of reopening measures. The findings reveal how short-term rental market reacts accordingly to reopening measures regarding accommodation, venue activity, and social distancing, and how it varies to locations. As coexisting with COVID-19 remains a new living paradigm in the future, accurate and scientific governance measures will play a part in transforming to a more sustainable and resilient economy for post-pandemic era.

The rapidly urbanizing world has remained divided between new-age formal leading urban economies and the smaller subsidiary, indigenous and traditional ones deeply embedded in urban informalities, which are low-cost and low-investment in nature and often practice circularity of trades. Informal sector is the backbone of a city’s economy especially in the developing world, covering almost half of the urban employment. Most of the traditional and small-scale economic activities are rooted within urban villages, which were originally rural villages around which the planned city had been developed. In the present context, these areas display intricate socio-economic interdependencies and exhibit building typologies and cultural heritage that foster co-existence of myriad traditional and current occupations. This paper, through the case of urban villages in Noida, argues that these spatial units by virtue of their unique semi-urban character foster employment related to indigenous low-cost trades and crafts, in addition to being host to affordable real estate for mainstream economic activities. The study brings out inter-relationships of the morphology and economic systems in the urban villages, including the spatial grouping of similar activities that sustain circular economy and mutual symbiosis of trade; building typologies and street character that deploy physical adaptations for different set of income generating activities; distribution of commercial activities in fringe areas due to functional dependence on connectivity, and informal incubators of traditional craft works in traditional housing typologies, like the courtyard houses etc. These circular economies and symbiotic trades are neither possible in organized development, nor have any authorizations to operate outside their informal physical domains. However, the spaces available for these activities are physically constraint, low quality, congested and lack basic infrastructure, and strategies to regenerate lay outside of formal building bylaws and regulatory framework of local governing bodies, which also presents challenges of formal funding mechanisms and private sector outreach for funds. This paper recommends an adaptive rethinking of informalities in urban realm to recognize and associate their spatial intricacies as an advantage for thriving low cost local and circular economic activities. This can be achieved through a cross-sectoral approach, where the informal physical spaces have flexibility to adapt to temporal economic shifts crucial to sustain the traditional low-cost economies. This would not only require a proactive and interactive governance involving communities, but also policy changes to accommodate informal spatial adaptations in building bylaws as a way forward to empower the traditional and low-cost circular economies, across the developing world.